Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Consequences of lack of Fiscal Policy at the top, Corporate mismangement in the middle tier and Social irresponsibility at the bottom tier.


Note: The audience of this document is common man(and woman) like you and me. The idea is to first understand our economical footprints before we analyze and implement the changes to our life style. This article does not suggest what life style changes everyone needs to make, that is beyond the scope. As it is happening in today’s world the onus is ‘still’ on the individual. That being the intention, I have tried to make this article as simple as possible. Some technical jargons had to be used and I have tried to quote as much reference as possible to make it easy to understand. I am neither an economist nor a mathematician to make calculations and pass judgments. This article is just an attempt to present facts in plain and simple terms so we do understand as what kind of mess we have created for ourselves. At the end of the day it is all about adjusting oneself to ‘Supply and Demand’, as simple as that.

Government’s primary job is to streamline its income and expenditure in such a way that it favors the economy and fuels healthy and sustainable living standards to its citizen. In mathematical terms, when the income exceeds the expenses it is surplus and when it is the other way it is deficit(debt). United States currently has a public debt of over 16 Trillion financed as bonds and treasuries. Yes, Trillion with a ‘T’. This debt has been accumulated over the years by adding deficit from each individual year ‘progressively’. For instance the year 2012 alone contributed over 1 Trillion of this deficit. US GDP(Gross Domestic Product – investopedia definition - ‘Is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country’s border in a specific period of time’) for 2012 is around 16 Trillion. Current US debt is around 100% of its GDP. To compare this historically, the previous highest deficit was during the post great depression in 1943(30% of GDP). To give an idea as what it takes to repay this debt, the whole of US needs to work real hard for one year and not consume anything that is produced in this period(including food, gas, homes, cars etc) and repay those proceeds towards the debt for that debt to become zero. Agreed this is not a viable solution, let us divide the debt equally among all of us. US population is about 315 Million, if we were to divide this debt equally to all citizens then each of us(including newborns) will get a ‘share’ of around USD 51,000. Both solutions are practically impossible to implement. Before we try to address a solution, let us examine and understand as how we created this mess (both from government and public perspective).

US government very clearly lacks a ‘Fiscal Policy’ - wiki definition – ‘Is the use of government revenue collection (taxation) and expenditure (spending) to influence the economy’.

In the recent past, US government has been spending ‘excessively’ than what it takes as revenue. In 1998, the federal budget reported its first surplus ($69 billion) since 1969. In 1999, the surplus nearly doubled to $125 billion, and then again in 2000 to $236 billion. It has gone down spirally since then. The four main contributors for this being a.) the ‘dot.com’ bubble, b.) 9/11 attacks(huge defense spending on Afghan and Iraq wars), c.) Tax cuts to the tune of 1.35 Trillion and d.) Recession initiated Economic Stimulus in the name of Quantitative Easing as a result of deregulation in the Financial Sector and Mortgage Backed Securities.

These four toxic events have severely contributed and still contributing to the mess we are in today. The mess is still piling up without any sight of it ending in the near term. Current policies and actions are geared up towards piling up more and more debt. Country’s financial credibility is surely being threatened. Imagine the possibility of defaulting on such a huge debt by a developed country that leads in many areas including space and military research. Thought alone is scary, let alone its worldwide consequences.

US has moved past the dot.com bubble and 9/11 emotionally, but the financial impact that these events have created has left a huge scar which still has not been repaired. The positive from this unwanted exercise is that it is not creating any major addition to the deficit any longer.

Tax cuts are still an issue, "U.S. Treasury Department", "Center on Budget and Policy Priorities" and the "Congressional Budget Office" have clearly been opponents of the Bush-era tax cuts stating that it has added about 1.35 Trillion to public debt so far. As designed if continued, it can potentially add another 3.3 Trillion to the deficit in the next decade.

The last and the most horrific event is the ‘effects’ of deregulation of financial sector that is in place for the last two decades. The mess that this has created is much bigger than all three above incidents put together. The US government is clear and adamant as not to have a Fiscal Policy. To a large extent (mis)handling in this area is currently done by the Central Bank(Fed). In the wake of lack of fiscal policy from the government, the loopholes in the derivatives markets and the mortgage backed securities have been thoroughly utilized by the corporate heads to inflate the profits of their respective companies. Which have resulted in huge pay hikes and bonuses for them. Since ‘ethics’ is no longer an accepted product in the corporate premises, the blame now squarely lies on Fed and govt for creating such a mess. One of the primary jobs of a democratically elected government has unofficially been delegated to Central bank(Fed).

As a result the Fed had to come up with measures like ‘Quantitative Easing’ to help struggling corporates who are the bread givers of common man. A process in which Fed bought (rotten) Financial Assets (wiki definition – “Is an intangible asset that derives value because of a contractual claim. Examples include bank deposits, bonds, and stocks.”) from these corporates(commercial bank) by printing more money from ‘thin air’ and using ‘tax dollars’ in the intention to increase liquidity for these banks, so they can lend more to help the common man. That too at an interest rate close to zero(a great reward for corporate unethical practices). All this was done to help the common man, under the agreement that the corporates have to start lending again but with more rules and regulations in place. Now this brought two changes: One, the toxic assets were moved from the balance sheet of the corporates to the balance sheet of the Fed(replacing the printed dollars and our ‘tax dollars’) !!! Two, the corporates were able to a.) Hoard the money received from Fed to fulfill their reserve requirements imposed by Fed b.) Diversify the rest of the money received from the Fed into other profitable investments(like commodities, sending commodities like gold prices higher) and finally lend some money to the size of peanuts to the public. The corporates now can point to the stricter regulation for lending out such small money to the public. Clever, right ? The corporates are now back to business, they are again generating huge profits(from their investments) and are in a position to repay the ‘negotiated’(not the borrowed money) money back to Fed. The rest will be taken by tax payers, I guess. Just like what BOFA did today, which prompted me to write this article anyways.

The blame cannot squarely be put on Fed, Govt and Corporates alone. We as citizens have played our part too to contribute to the mess. We too to our capacity have used to loopholes in the system. We did the same what the corporate heads did, which is to buy homes beyond our reach just because easy loans were available under plans like ‘stated income’, ‘interest only’ and ‘balloon loans’. Just when we found that there were whole of people in the same boat which was about to sink, we jumped off it using the life vests(short sale and foreclosures) provided by Fed/Govt. A lot of us jumped out of the boat just because it was a bad investment decision we made and not because of a true situation where we could not repay. We are no saints either. We surely have contributed to this mess in the best possible way we can.

The blunt of all this is faced by all of us, including the tax payer who has not indulged in any of this activity(statistically majority of the people come under this category). Undoubtedly Fed and the Govt will reward such tax-payers, of course with a huge tax increase!!

So what is the path ahead ? Like I mentioned, I am no mathematician or economist, these are my common sense predictions, based on the events happened in the past under similar circumstances. Along with death, three things that are certain are very high Interest rates, high Tax rates and Dollar losing its status of reserve currency.

Current setup(low interest rates) seemed to have created equity for home owners without much progress in job front. The idea of Fed I believe(my speculation here based on fed reports, not fact) is that low interest rate will increase business output and in turn create construction and manufacturing job which will trigger the economy back to normalcy, slowly. If so, inflation will certainly go up, Interest rate is sure to raise just like Volker did(if not that bad). Bonds and Treasuries will crash and US stands to lose the status of reserve currency, not very far from now. That too considering that majority of US debt is financed by China and Japan.

Price of Gold has to go down when QE stops (these banks have to sell their investments to repay the cash). Technically gold has to go up when Inflation rises. The direction of gold price largely depends on how much of gold is sold by these commercial banks vs. Inflation rise. Trying to make an educated guess, Fed will start raising interest rates(in 2014-2015) to curb inflation and prior to that commercial banks will start selling their investments to repay their debt and both happening at the same time, commodities prices will fluctuate in the next few years. However when dollar loses its reserve currency status, the next viable alternative is gold. So it is hard to predict the direction of gold in the long run. In the near term gold has to go down to the levels of 1300-1500 and then climb back depending on the time(not a question of if but when) when dollar loses it reserve currency status.

Anyway the above is not the intention of this topic, getting back to the original thread, there is still no solution as how the public debt is going to be repaid. No measures have even been initiated in that regard. The cause for this situation needs to be equally shared by Govt for lack of Fiscal Policy, by Fed for handling the situation the way it has, corporate heads for manipulating the loopholes and the common man for going beyond his ways and means of life. The solution surely has to come from the government, deregulation of financial sector and lack of fiscal policy needs to be addressed first before anything else……….

“Earth has every resource for everyone’s need but not enough resource even for one person’s greed”, we have set up our self very well for this. The majority of the powerful people have been more than greedy along a small percentage of ordinary citizen. Let us see how it goes……..

God (alone) bless America.

Saturday, December 13, 2008

Rules not meant to be broken

Rules not meant to be broken ( Read on the net..)

1. Give back
2. Play nice
3. Define your special sauce
4. Don't waste people's time
5. Brag (but don't believe your own hype)
7. Have a personal slogan
8. Have a plan and alter it as work and life evolve
9. Be relevant and stay relevant
10. Create and use a support system
11. Stay in the loop
13. Follow up
14. Offer service with a smile
15. Be a superhero, super-doer (if not, a rock star!)
16. Find a nemesis
17. Stay on people's radars
18. One for you, one for me
19. Pay attention and be consistent
20. Be genuinely enthusiastic
22. Do the right thing
23. Say THANK YOU!

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

A nation of Billion spectators and a total of 20 Olympic medals altogether!

IndiaIndia Flag at 2008 Beijing Olympics

Gold Silver Bronze
1 0 2 3

Just browsing around the internet, I have read plenty of columns and analysis about India's participation and performance at 2008 Beijing Olympics, just presenting some of them for your thoughts..

In the Wiki - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India_at_the_Olympics

India is credited for first participating at the Olympic Games in 1900, with a lone athlete (Norman Pritchard) winning two medals in athletics. The nation first sent a team to the Summer Olympic Games in 1920, and has participated in every Summer Games since then. India has also competed at several Winter Olympic Games since 1964.

Indian athletes have won a total of 20 medals, mostly in field hockey. The men's field hockey team was dominant in Olympic competition, winning eleven medals in twelve Olympiads between 1928 and 1980, including six successive gold medals from 1928–1956.

in Hindu http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/27/stories/2008082755601100.htm

First: building a sporting culture in the country. Each of us has to play a role in this, you included. When was the last time you played a game, or swam or cycled or ran? Last year? In college? In school? We are a cricket crazy nation but 99 per cent of us are spectators that too, television viewers — but we are the first to shout at Sehwag, Tendulkar and Dhoni on the screen, telling them what they should do.

What should the government do? Make sports/physical education a compulsory subject up to class 10; encourage schools to provide exposure to the sports pyramid in a structured manner to the students; delineate a sports and fitness policy and execute it relentlessly;

in Asia Times http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/JH08Df03.html

Well, the auguries don't look too good. For one, a nation of a billion-plus people - the world's most populous democracy - has dispatched a small squad of 57 athletes (and 42 officials) to the Games. In other words, with a total of 28 sports and 302 events to compete in, only a meager 57 Indians athletes are qualified participants.

Contrast this with the United States, which marches into Beijing with a powerhouse contingent of 596 athletes. China has 639 and even tiny Estonia has 47 representatives. In terms of the total Olympic medal tallied, India ranks even behind Nigeria, a country whose economy is one-twentieth of its size.

About half the money from India's outlay will be channeled towards administrative expenses and the salaries of officials and bureaucrats. In other words, much of it will be gobbled up in administrative expense rather than the crucial training of athletes

Many feel that the first step for India would be to loosen the tight control of politicians, bureaucrats and administrators over the country's numerous sports associations - at the Athens Games in 2004, 227 officials accompanied 75 athletes.

and If some of you want some consolation, you can read this
in Guardian

"The Chinese have built their success strategically by concentrating on diving, gymnastics and table tennis. We need to do the same in shooting, weightlifting and boxing. It's entirely possible to win more medals. Many more."

and Some wrote like this,
Well we had a Bronze in 2000, and we had a Silver in 2004, now we have 1 Gold and 2 Bronzes in 2008, doesn't it look like progress?

Is that true?

Friday, June 27, 2008

Dasavatharam - review.

Dasavatharam review:

This review is my personal opinion of the movie. Have made an attempt as how Dr. Kamal Hassan would have conceived the movie. There could be flaws in my interpretation, but have made a sincere attempt to be honest and had to watch the “full” movie second time to get clear understanding of the movie.


The movie is based on ‘Chaos Theory’ and the screenplay has been adopted just to prove it. Ironically, Mr. Hassan has used Lord Vishnu’s ten avataram to prove ‘his belief’ about Chaos Theory, that’s the gist of the movie.

Recently, I have started admiring him more as a official/unofficial director(Hey Ram, Virumandi and Alavandhan) than as an actor and this movie is just another example. This movie has lot of flaws, which I am sure he would have very easily avoided on his own, but could not. The reason, I guess, is just the opposite of what people commonly believe. It is a common belief that he interferes with his director’s work but this film clearly shows that the director and producer have interfered in Mr. Hassan’s script, if not it would have clearly catered at least one set of audience. The director and producer, must have insisted Mr. Hassan to spice up the script by adding few commercial ingredients. The end product is “neither for the class nor for the mass audience”. A lot of stuff seen in the movie have put Vijay/Rajinikanth movies to shame. Example, Patti running over people’s shoulder to put the veil under the statue, the bullet getting rid of Avatar Singh’s cancer tissue, Christian Fletcher jumping down without any tools from the fifth-sixth floor of a building, Govind Ramaswamy jumping from a high bridge without knowing what is going to happen next, only to find him cushioned on a vegetable lorry, over use of Asin in the second half etc etc., Such things could have been VERY EASILY avoided. Quite naturally, the producer must have been scared about the commercial success of the movie and hence the director/producer’s influence is clearly seen in such scenes.

Regarding make-ups, a lot of hard work and effort has gone into it, from that aspect he has done at great job even at his age. However, the end product reminded me of the fancy dress competition that we used to have in my school, nothing more than that.

In my opinion, if Mr. Hassan was bold, he on his own should have produced this movie and should have made it like the Lord of the Rings. This movie had quality contents that could have been filmed for a minimum of 8-10 hours. I am sure it would have been a class movie if it was done that way.


As said earlier, the movie is about Kamal Hassan’s belief in “chaos theory “and “butterfly effect”, according to this theory what it means is

“systems whose state evolves with time – that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions” - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory.

According to this concept, the happenings of a system(here world) are highly sensitive to the initial conditions, that is the reason he goes back to the 12 th century, where the heavy statue of Lord Vishnu falling on to the sea bed has a small effect on the tectonic plates, slowly causing a chain reaction, which later develops into a Tsunami after 800 years. He also intelligently uses the Nambi character from the same 12 th century as the fore-father of Govind Ramaswamy’s character to tell the story. Excellent story telling technique.

Secondly, a lot of people criticize the use of ten characters, he surely has a valid reason to it and has done it very neatly and each character has a meaning to the chaos theory. If Bush had called the plane back to US, the story would not have progressed, had the Japanese character not been there Christian Fletcher would not have been killed, had Patti not dropped the veil into the statue it would have gotten into the hands of the villain, with Kaifullah, Govind character would not have escaped, without Vincent Boovaragan, Andal(Asin) and the statue(which had the veil) would not have been saved, a lot like these, and the list goes on and on. All these things happen in a unpredictable chaotic manner and had a effect on the final happening, in short chaos theory.

Kamal Hassan has VERY NEATLY attached(he could have done it more effectively) each of the ten characters to the ten avatarams of Lord Vishnu.

1. Shingen Narahashi – Narasimha avataram – Not just the name and the makeup, also the characterization. In Narsimha avataram, Lord Vishnu was a guru and he was neither a man nor an animal and had to kill Hiranyakasipu without any weapons and hence the martial arts thing and the weird makeup.

2. Vincent Boovaragan – Krishna avataram -Was a Dalit, Saves Andal(Asin) from the Sand quarry villan while her cloth is being stripped and gets killed by a steal rod poked on his leg. Exactly similar to what Krishna was and how he died, Krishna died of an arrow being hit in his leg and saved Draupathi while her dress was stripped and he too was suppose to be a Dalit.

3. Kalifulla Khan - Vamana Avatar – This is the avataram where he takes the vishwaroopam and hence this character.

4. Christian Fletche - Parasuram Avataram – Referred as Rama with the Axe – Christian Fletcher has an iron axe in his hand. This is one avataram where Lord Vishnu gets into killing spree and kills and kills 21 generations, and so does Christian Fletcher her, he gets into a killing spree.

5. Krishnaveni Paati – Varaha Avatar – Her makeup was very horrible, plus if you look closely, the character’s makeup resembles like a pig, mouth protruding and also she plays that character of a pig in the Mukundha song……

6. Rangaraja Nambi - Masya Avatar – This character was tied to the statue and thrown into the sea, loosely depicted character of Masya Avatar.

7. Balaram Naidu – Balaram Avatar – The name and action clearly imply this avatar and he was fair skinned as compared to his brother Krishna and hence the makeup looks pretty close to Vincent Boovaragan.

8. Avatar Singh – Rama Avatar – Who believes in love and one man/one woman theory, and hence he was willing to sacrifice his voice for his wife….

9. Koorma Avatar – Probably Bush –for being slow to act, the character even says funnily, “if it is complicated then don’t say”.

10. Govind Ramasamy – Kalki Avatar – Who is yet to appear and is suppose to appear to the current world.

He has clearly weaved a very good script, with an excellent storyline and clearly interlinked it at each stage to chaos theory with the help of the above ten characters. He did not make an ordinary rags to riches or love story that we see today, he has given a very brave attempt.

To make it class movie he should have cut all the commercial contents and made each of the character elaborate, and made it a 10 hour movie, but will people accept it ???

If no, he is not running a charity, he too is running a business, from that aspect he has done an excellent job.

I might or might not agree to his concept of chaos theory, keeping that aside, he surely is a RARE and TRUE genius in Indian cinema a class apart. We should be proud of unearthing such a treasure, we should encourage him and people like him for their on screen activities if we need to take Indian cinema to the next level.

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Rotten American Banking System (let me coin a name and call it “RABS syndrome”)

Rotten American Banking System (let me coin a name and call it “RABS syndrome”):

I have tried to present this article in pure but simple English that way it benefits anyone who reads it. This is an attempt to lay a picture of how rotten the American Banking system is and mainly how dysfunctional its governing bodies are. This mismanagement will have a significant adverse impact on the financial stability of this beautiful country and essentially the rest of the world. When will it happen ? no person/organization can predict but the current practice cannot sustain. RABS, I can say is the mother of all financial problems this county has faced and will face for the foreseeable future, the mortgage crisis is just a drop of water when compared to this RABS ocean.

My trading knowledge in derivatives segment (option trading) has helped me understand this mess. I accidentally started this research when I first read about the Countrywide-Bank of America merger, the deeper I got into this the scarier it became. Again, this is just my understanding of what I saw, I am neither an economist nor a Finance guy, this gives me a 'comfort' that I could be wrong (considering the implications of RABS based on my findings, will be more than happy to be wrong).

Let me put forth a few definitions before I can start using these terms in the article

Comptroller – A comptroller or controller is a person who supervises accounting and financial reporting within an organization (wiki definition: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comptroller )

Derivatives – A Financial instrument/contract, whose value is, derived from the value of something else (usually an underlying asset), will try to explain more about this later in the article. Some common examples of derivatives are: Option trading(Calls and Puts), Futures, Commodity Contracts and Interest Rate contracts, see wiki definition of derivatives: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derivative_%28finance%29

The US treasury/Government/Fed is the Comptroller of all US National banks – called as the Office of the Comptroller of the currency('OCC'), they have an official website, see the proud statement at the top which says "Ensuring Safe and Sound National Banking System for all Americans" (please visit this site before you read the rest of this article, even if it is just a click to read their statement, it is fine: http://www.occ.treas.gov/index.htm )

They give a 'Quarterly Report' on the Bank's Derivative activities ( http://www.occ.treas.gov/deriv/deriv.htm ). They have all their reports since the fourth quarter of 1995 published for everyone to see for free, I guess it should be because of the Freedom of Information Act(FOIA).

Getting back to the derivatives, the biggest advantages of derivatives trading is: Leverage. If you have traded options, you know what it means. For people who are new derivatives trading, let me very briefly explain what options are(for others please skip the following para).

There are two types of options: Call Option(you buy them when you anticipate that the underlying asset will appreciate) and Put Option(you buy them when you anticipate that the underlying asset will depreciate). Every option has an expiry date, which means your anticipation is tied not only to price movement but also price movement within certain period of time. Then there is a the price which is called Strike price, the price that you think is appropriate for your strategy. Let me try to explain with a small example: Say you anticipate Gold to close above $1000 by June 2008 and assume today(April 03 2008) it is trading around $900. You would buy a call option(say for $10) at for a strike price of $1000 that expires in the month of June and if the price of gold goes to $1050 before the expiry of the option, you gain $40. This is because you paid a premium of $10 for that option and that premium means anything above $1000 is yours to keep , now you are suppose to get $50 because the asset has appreciated to $1050 but you have paid a premium of $10, so your net profit is $40. The more the asset appreciates the more the gain you make. Now what happens if the asset falls down below $1000, all you loose is your premium – the $10. This is exactly how options trading can give you leverage. The following link however gives a very good introduction of what they are and how they function (http://www.investopedia.com/university/options/ ).

In here, with respect to the banking system a derivative or options is a “financial contract” between various financial/banking institutions. The contract usually has an underlying asset, the asset can be anything in this world, it can be peanuts (literally), it can be oil, it can be stocks, it can be mortgage backed securities, it can be anything, except you and me(might change soon !!). These contracts move based on the price movement of the underlying assets. What US investment banks (for various reasons they do not have the same restrictions that of the consumer banks have) do is control these assets by owning a fraction of them in the form of options, they do this just for their own leverage/profit. The Fed has to go by the terms dictated by them, if not these investment banks will fail and so will the economy and Bear Stearns is just one of them. I have made a decent attempt in the rest of the article to explain how it works and what is bound to happen.

Let us now discuss based on the latest report of 'OCC' (The third quarter 2007 report) – mind you this is an official government report, so it is not prepared by just you or me or any third party organization - http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2007-137a.pdf

Read the whole report at your leisure, if you need quick info navigate to the 21 st page of the report you will see a very scary reading. The table says that the top 25 National banks put together just own around 4% of their assets that they trade. Plus they are NOT trading in Millions or Billions, they are trading in Trillions, yes trillions. In simple terms the top 25 national banks have a total asset of 6 Trillion dollars while they trade around 172 TRILLION dollars ! Remember the US GDP is around 12 Trillion. These banks are trading around 14 times worth of the US GDP ! and it is reported by OCC. Isn’t it atrocious ???? Plus if you narrow down it to the top three banks (JP Morgan + Citi + Bank of America) they trade around 157 Trillion – around 91 % of the top 25 banks but they own around 3.7 Trillion of assets. Look at how much these people are leveraged….

What happens when these underlying asset change in value(on the negative side) say by 2-5%, the hit that these banks take is unimaginable, they will not have the money to pay the loss that they will incur. That will eventually cause them bankruptcy, exactly what happened with Bear and Stearns. So the Fed has to go in the direction of where these banks have placed their bets, the economy cannot survive if these banks do not survive. The fed will even be willing to dump the dollar for these banks to survive(like it is doing now by lowering the interest rates).

Do you want to make any guess what these banks have been trading or what have they placed their money on ?

85% of these bets (I am sorry options) as per the above OCC report is on the “direction of the interest rates” !!! THE FED HAS TO(IT HAS NO CHOICE) TO CHANGE THE INTEREST RATE WHERE THESE BIG BULLIES HAVE PLACED THEIR BETS. If not they will fail. If they fail(like Bear Stearns did) the FED has to rescue, Alan Greenspan did it for Long Term Capital in the late 98( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management ), today Bernanke did it to Bear Stearns in 2008. Remember these are peanut companies that deal around 200-500 Billion(is 500 B small, of course relatively). Imagine what would happen if the giants like JP Morgan, who trade around 92 Trillions fail ???? Who can bail them out ????? What happens to the economy of this beautiful country ???

As a small scale investor, the best thing is to diversify your holdings to different types of assets: Gold, Oil, Swiss Francs, Euro and any other tangible asset that you can…..in short run for the cover.

In the meantime, this country is a very wonderful and blessed country, it has gone through a lot of hardships and fought through it bravely and has come out of it successfully, that is my only hope !!!